Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

Mugoša, Ana and Popović, Saša (2015) Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation. Economic analysis, 48 (1-2). pp. 39-53. ISSN 1821-2573

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are their main investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period 2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated) was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.

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