Prolonged recession in Serbia and recovery prospects

Vuković, Vlastimir and Minović, Jelena (2013) Prolonged recession in Serbia and recovery prospects. In: Post crisis recovery. Belgrade Banking Academy, Belgrade, pp. 317-327. ISBN 978-86-7852-034-1

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After the recession in 2009, Serbian economy had a very slow recovery. Due to this, real GDP in 2011 was still lower than three years ago. Simultaneously, unemployment rate grew rapidly achieving a record 25.5% at the end of the first half of last year! Fearing that the contraction phase was not over came true in 2012, when GDP again decreased for 1.7%. Statistical data showed that this was a prolonged double-dip recession as in many other countries, which were exposed to the impact of the global crisis. However, the domestic economy is burdened by some great internal problems: record transitional gap, high inflation, volatile exchange rate and excessively high interest rates. Public debt, budget deficit and negative net export are also high, although they are similar in relative term as in other countries. When these weak economic performances are considered in the context of decreasing investments and languishing credit market, it is clear that the possibilities of recovery are very weak in 2013 – 2014. Therefore, countercyclical measures of economic policy are focused in this paper and without them the recovery is uncertain. Measures of monetary policy directed into ensuring the price stability and exchange rate stability are especially analyzed.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: COBISS.ID=1024541584
Uncontrolled Keywords: prolonged double-dip recession, transition, recovery, monetary policy
Research Department: Macroeconomics
Depositing User: Jelena Banovic
Date Deposited: 22 Sep 2016 18:33
Last Modified: 26 Mar 2020 12:11

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