Forecasting Serbian quarterly GDP

Redžepagić, Srđan and Filimonović, Dragan and Bodroža, Duško (2013) Forecasting Serbian quarterly GDP. In: Monetary rules and their importance in context of Monetary Union and economic crisis. Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, pp. 157-165. ISBN 978-86-80315-99-7

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In this paper we have forecasted Serbian quarterly GDP data for 2013. We have used extended classical Box-Jenkins approach, also known as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) stochastic model. We have identified the SARIMA (0,2,2)(2,1,0)[4] as the model which provides the best explanation of the data. According to our forecast, Serbian economy will grow by 1.3% in 2013 which is in line with predictions published by several commercial banks operating in Serbia. Our model shows that the largest GDP growth will be at the end of the year, i.e. in the last two quarters.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: COBISS.ID=512236386
Uncontrolled Keywords: GDP, SARIMA, Forecast
M Category: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Depositing User: Jelena Banovic
Date Deposited: 27 Sep 2016 12:02
Last Modified: 28 Oct 2016 07:05

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