A Long-Run Relation Between Tourism and International Trade : Evidences from Western Balkan

Zdravković, Aleksandar and Bradić-Martinović, Aleksandra (2021) A Long-Run Relation Between Tourism and International Trade : Evidences from Western Balkan. In: Makroekonomska stabilnost i unapređenje konkurentnosti zemalja Zapadnog Balkana. Institut ekonomskih nauka, Beograd, pp. 68-85. ISBN 978-86-89465-65-5

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Abstract

The main objective of the study is to empirically assess whether a long run relationship exists between receipts from international tourism and export/import in the Western Balkan region. Applied methodology is based on the panel version of standard procedure for cointegration testing in multivariate time-series analysis. Empirical results support the existence of the cointegrating relations both between receipts and import and receipts and export. Also, the existence of a bidirectional long run causal relationship is evidenced in both cases, in line with certain theoretical expectations and predictions. On the other hand, short run Granger causality is indicated only from import to receipts and receipts to export.

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